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From the Bureau: Climate outlook for May to July

The Bureau of Meteorology has released its monthly and seasonal climate outlooks for May to July 2017.

Drier May to July likely for southern two-thirds of Australia

For the months ahead, rainfall is likely to be below average over the southern two-thirds of mainland Australia. Chances of a drier three months are highest in southeast Australia, where there is a greater than 75% chance that the season will be below average.

May is likely to be drier than average over most of Australia, except far northern Australia and Tasmania.

This outlook is influenced by warming in tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures and a cooler eastern Indian Ocean.

Chance of exceeding the median Rainfall - May to July 2017 - http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/archive/outlooks/latest-outlook.shtml

Warmer days likely for much of Australia, but cooler for NT's Top End

Daytime temperatures for May to July are likely to be warmer than average for most of Australia, but cooler than average for the Top End of the NT.

Night-time temperatures for May to July are likely to be warmer in southwest, central and the far southeast of Australia.This outlook is influenced by warming in tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures and a cooler eastern Indian Ocean (see the Climate Influences section for more detail).

This outlook is influenced by warming in tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures and a cooler eastern Indian Ocean.

Chance of exceeding the median Max Temp - May to July 2017 - http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/archive/outlooks/latest-outlook.shtml

Climate influences

  • The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral, but tropical Pacific Ocean waters have been steadily warming since January.
  • The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral.
  • It should be noted than northern Australia officially enters its dry season at the start of May.
  • In addition to the natural drivers such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the IOD, Australian climate patterns are being influenced by the long-term increasing trend in global air and ocean temperatures.

This monthly Climate and Water Outlook Bureau of Meteorology video (3:56 mins) covers rainfall, streamflow and temperature for the next three months.

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