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Agri Commodities Update: Bouys of summer have gone

Soybean and corn prices have given up their late Northern summer gains as the deniability of large US crops fades.

Currencies

The agri-exporter currencies were little changed on Thursday.  The quiescence means there is little impact on prices.  The Australian Dollar has barely budged from where it has been for the past few days, just below 76.25c. 

Grains & Oilseeds

  • Global wheat prices edged lower over the past day.  Minneapolis spring wheat futures remain under the most pressure as they made new season lows.  The others managed to avoid that for now.
  • ASX East January wheat futures trader higher on Thursday, closing at 235$.   Australian wheat may be under a little pressure in early trade today with global prices a shade lower overnight.
  • Corn futures slipped on Thursday, despite the USDA reporting a stellar week of new crop export sales.  The weight of US supply, even if production is likely to be a little lower than forecast, continues to pull prices lower. And on Thursday too the International Grains Council edged its forecast for world corn production from 1.017 billion tonnes to a record high of 1.03 billion tonnes.  More grain, more price pain.
  • Soybean futures tumbled nearly 3% on Thursday to see the November contract move below 10$.  Canola's falls were more moderate in comparison.  The soybean market is under pressure given that excellent pod counts have been reported from the Pro Farmer crop tour.  Strong pod counts, coupled with unthreatening August weather, all but confirm high yield potential for US crops.  US new crop export sales continue to outpace expectations - last week 1.9mmt of 'beans were sold, which is the second highest so far for the marketing year.  The market though did not manage to draw much support from that on the day.

Cotton

Cotton futures finished modestly higher on Thursday.  US export sales rose for the third straight week to inject a little optimism back into the market. Largely unthreatening weather in the US and India though continues to cap additional gains.

Sugar

Sugar futures prices bounced on Thursday to continue the volatile trading pattern of recent days.  The October-March spread also rallied away from recent lows.  The market seems to be bogged down, able to rock back and forth, but unable to go sustain momentum in either direction. 

Dairy

NZX WMP prices were unchanged on Thursday.  The market has turned quiet of late.   A GDT auction looms next week that will test the market’s strength again.

Learn More

For a more detailed snapshot of market conditions, or to get the daily market update direct to your inbox daily, visit Commonwealth Bank. Important Disclosures and analyst certifications regarding subject companies are at www.research.commbank.com.au.


This report was originally published, approved and distributed by Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945.

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