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From the Bureau: Climate outlook for June to August

The Bureau of Meteorology has released its monthly and seasonal climate outlooks for June to August 2017.

Drier winter likely for most of southern Australia

June is likely to be drier than average over southern and central WA, SA and western parts of NSW and Victoria.

Winter (June to August) rainfall is likely to be below average over the southern half of mainland Australia. While there is a tendency for eastern Tasmania to be wetter than average for winter, model accuracy in eastern Tasmania for this period is low.

The Top End of the NT is likely to have a wetter June to August, but it is now the dry season, and median rainfall at this time of year is very low. Only a small amount of rainfall—which could come from a single rain event—would be needed to exceed the median.

Outlooks are being influenced by warmer than average tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures and a cooler than average eastern Indian Ocean.

Warmer winter days likely for southern States

Daytime temperatures for June to August are likely to be warmer than average for the southern half of Australia and the tip of Cape York Peninsula.

Night-time temperatures for June to August are likely to be warmer for southern WA, southeast SA, eastern NSW, Victoria, Tasmania and the tip of Cape York Peninsula. Most of the country has roughly equal chances of warmer or cooler winter nights.

Outlooks are being influenced by warmer than average tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures and a cooler than average eastern Indian Ocean.

Historical maximum temperature accuracy for winter is moderate to high over most of Australia, except much of WA, and western and southern SA. Minimum temperature accuracy is moderate for most of Australia.

This monthly Climate and Water Outlook Bureau of Meteorology video (3:43 mins) covers rainfall, streamflow and temperature for the next three months.

Climate influences

  • The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral, but tropical Pacific Ocean waters are warmer than average. The Bureau's climate model suggests further warming is unlikely, with outlooks falling short of El Niño levels.
  • The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains neutral.
  • Additionally, higher than average pressure is forecast for southern parts of Australia, which means fewer cold fronts and low pressure systems are likely to cross southern Australia during winter.
  • In addition to the natural drivers such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the IOD, Australian climate patterns are being influenced by the long-term increasing trend in global air and ocean temperatures.

For more information, visit the Australian Government Bureau of Merterology website.

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